MENA is Ground Zero for the Climate Migration Crisis and Why It Matters

By Jeff Zhou

Source: The Guardian

Introduction

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the most water-scarce territory in the world. Over 60% of its population lives in areas experiencing high water stress. Additionally, droughts and floods pose a major threat, as in 2021, rising temperatures led to desertification, impacting water supplies and food production processes. Over 12 million people were affected in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Iran. 

With climate change expected to worsen in the coming years, climate migration in MENA has emerged as a growing policy concern, especially in Europe. As always, the poor and marginalized are the most at risk. Women and children face unique challenges, including food insecurity, medical diseases, and increased exposure to violence. However, despite the heightened focus, the international community has yet to deliver an adequate response. Continued inaction will not only jeopardize MENA but also undermine the stability of the global order. 

The Weaponization of Natural Disasters During Conflict

A prevailing opinion among Western elites on climate migration is that there remains ample time to tackle the problem. However, this overlooks the fact that populations facing immense environmental stressors are also suffering tremendous devastation from social conflict. For instance, Syria has endured attacks on 457 water supply and sanitation assets, including damage to or annihilation of two-thirds of the country’s water treatment plants and half of its pumping stations. Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, is a prime target for water weaponization. In 2014, government forces assaulted the Al-Khafseh water treatment plant, which served over two million people. They didn’t stop there, as just two years later, Aleppo’s remaining functional water plants were destroyed. Since the conflict began in 2011, the devastation has reduced the availability of potable water by up to 40% and rendered half of the country’s agricultural irrigation infrastructure inoperable. 

Ironically, Syria lies within the Fertile Crescent - the birthplace of agriculture around 12,000 years ago - yet conditions have deteriorated so badly that desperate people of all ages congregate along the Turkish coast each day to attempt a treacherous 16-kilometer water crossing to Lesbos. Just as many are escaping drought as are fleeing war and political turmoil. One such individual is Kemal Ali, who owned a successful well-digging company serving farmers in northern Syria for more than 30 years. Ali explained his family’s decision to emigrate: “Before the drought I would have to dig 60 or 70 meters to find water. Then I had to dig 100 to 200 meters. Then, when the drought hit very strongly, I had to dig 500 meters. The deepest I ever had to dig was 700 meters. The water kept dropping and dropping”. Ali’s business eventually collapsed, and he couldn’t find any work. At that point, the only option was to leave. 

Syria may be the most notorious case of natural resource weaponization, but other countries in the region face similar risks. To make matters worse, the prevailing view in international refugee law is that refugee status doesn’t generally apply in the context of disasters, since they don’t meet the conventional criteria. Thus, migrants who flee environmental disruption typically don’t qualify for asylum or receive protection from forcible return, putting them in a “legal limbo”. Furthermore, the absence of a recognized legal status means governments and international agencies aren’t obligated to offer aid or defend the basic rights of disaster-displaced people. Without any viable solutions, state and non-state actors can exploit climate change to harm their enemies, while evading repercussions. 

European governments are playing a dangerous game

The climate migration crisis in MENA carries significant implications for the rest of the world, particularly Europe. At present, most people displaced by climate change move within their own countries rather than across borders. However, if current trends persist, the situation will eventually become untenable. Indeed, a 2017 World Bank study found that the Gulf States could experience increasingly depleted water supplies in the next 50 years. Meanwhile, North Africa continues to struggle with severe water scarcity, as the biggest drops in rainfall have occurred in parts of Morocco, Algeria, and Libya. Moreover, these nations are seeing a surge in temperatures, with prolonged heat waves. 

There are already signs of what’s to come. In 2023, irregular migration to Europe via the Central Mediterranean route soared 49%, with most arrivals originating from Egypt, Sudan, and Tunisia. This represents the highest level since 2016. Since then, many European countries have tightened border control, but results have been inconsistent. Even the EU appears to have recognized this, pledging $46.4 billion for renewable energy, border security, and migration pathways in MENA. Without addressing the root causes though, the situation is unlikely to change.

It’s also important to note that anti-migrant sentiments in Europe remain relatively high. In the 2025 German federal elections, the center-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), achieved victory. Additionally, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) garnered 21% of the votes, a record-high result. Both the AfD and some members of the CDU/CSU urged for the mass deportation of Syrian refugees. Another recent political firestorm erupted in Poland, where right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki barely narrowly edged out center-right candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of the Polish presidential elections. Nawrocki gained notoriety for deploying hateful rhetoric against Middle Eastern and Ukrainian refugees during his campaign. 

It’s not too late to act 

Despite worsening climate conditions in MENA and a passive Europe grappling with anti-migrant public fervor, there’s still time to act. It all starts with the production and dissemination of climate knowledge. Insufficient funding for climate research hinders governments’ ability to develop data-driven solutions. An assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) discovered that African countries conduct the lowest number of adaptation research projects. The report also highlighted a pronounced imbalance between the funding allocated for adaptation and the funding allocated for mitigation initiatives, especially in North Africa. Thus, it’s critical for environmental organizations to support these countries in expanding data collection and information sharing. 

With many MENA governments overwhelmed by other challenges, partnerships are essential to tackling climate migration in the region. North African countries often implement green projects within their borders via partnerships with both Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the EU. Specifically, Morocco and Egypt have led renewable energy development, helping North Africa raise its renewable energy output by 40% over the past decade. Another multi-stakeholder engagement is the Saudi Green Initiative, which launched in 2021. It seeks to plant 10 billion trees, rehabilitate 40 million hectares of land, and ensure that 50% of the country’s energy comes from renewable sources by 2030. There are concerns about the transparency and potential greenwashing of some partnerships, as companies may offset emissions without making meaningful environmental changes. 

Ultimately, it's clear that MENA cannot fight the climate migration battle alone. Political instability and poor economic conditions have already forced millions to abandon their homes and migrate to Europe; climate change will only intensify those vulnerabilities. Given the rise in anti-immigration protests and growing anger across the continent, the dam is on the verge of breaking without strong intervention. But new international frameworks can be established to ameliorate the crisis. The key question is: does the global community feel an urgency to act, or will it wait until it’s too late? For the sake of future generations, let’s hope that it’s the former, not the latter. 

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Jeff is currently pursuing his Masters in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. Previously, Jeff served as Head of Investor Relations and Portfolio Operations at Untapped Ventures, where he helped raise a $22 million fund and supported a portfolio of 30+ startups. He has also worked at a couple of cutting-edge tech companies. Outside of work, Jeff is heavily involved in civic engagement and public service.