Cold as the Ice in Veins: Why Central Asia’s Glaciers Matter
- Young Diplomats Society
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
By Nyx Joy
“Instead of my world, there would soon be only ice, snow, stillness, death; no more violence, no war, no victims; nothing but frozen silence, absence of life.
- Anna Kavan, Ice
What does it mean to be as cold as can be? We stand witness to ancient fissures of us, as they recede. Environmental geographers generally accept that there is no such thing as a natural disaster. As the saying goes, people can only meet you as far as they have met themselves. To that end, extreme environmental occurrences may only become disasters in light of human action (or lack thereof). Climate change is a disaster that demands we confront it on its terms. Such is the case for Central Asia, a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, which contains fast receding glaciers, the existence of which many are dependent on.
In this vast and stunning terrain, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan unfold. More than mere beauty, countries such as Tajikistan—whose mountains comprise ninety per cent of its landscape—are threatened by climate change. Geologists say that the Fedchenko Glacier, the longest glacier outside the polar regions, was 77 km long only forty years ago, but is now 74 km long. The process of these glaciers melting involves floods and landslides, which affect the communities that rely on the glaciers for water resources, food, and energy. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are home to around 10,000 glaciers, according to Omorova; these glaciers account for 60 per cent of their water resources. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, addressed the melting of the region’s glaciers as a critical concern, with Tajik glaciers being a focal point for projects such as the Blue World of Central Asia 2.0 project and the promotion of the WEFE (Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems) Nexus approach. The issues arising from the melting of the glaciers range from migration to potential desertification. According to Oxfam, Tajikistan is one of the countries least to blame for climate change. However, it is one of the worst-affected countries, with over 1.4 million people already lacking access to proper food.
The Aral Sea's transformation stands as a poignant reminder of the consequences of when environmental stewardship falls short of the moment's demands. This once-vibrant inland sea, now significantly diminished, is a crucial part of the learning curve in moving toward a sustainable future. In the productive agricultural zones of southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, farming communities are adapting to changing climatic patterns while maintaining essential food production and economic activity. Each season brings lessons in adaptation, and each water management decision carries implications for neighbours near and distant. Regions beyond Tajikistan are also not strangers to these effects, potentially straining relations between the five countries, with external actors such as the UN and the World Bank taking notice and advocating for regional cooperation and sustainable water management. Migration in Central Asia manifests in seasonal labour movement, permanent relocation, rural-to-urban transition, and cross-border displacement. Climate impacts intensify existing migration impulses, further entrenching regions in economic, political, and social factors that shape mobility decisions, making them resistant to facile interpretation. When trillions of dollars are allocated to corporations daily, experts wonder why these glaciers do not elicit more funding from governments. When asked what could be done through institutions and organisations, geologists emphasise that the UN should play a new role in having an impact beyond the veto countries, by introducing and allowing influence from smaller countries, which is a necessary measure when it comes to climate action.
The glaciers we care for, when it boils down to ski resorts and recreational soul-searching, are now measured in increments of what happens now. As approximately 41.3% of the Earth's land surface is considered dryland, according to the United Nations. These ecosystems, already dwelling at the threshold of climate tolerance, confront intensifying desertification and soil transformation as temperatures ascend and precipitation patterns evolve beyond recognition. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings reveal temperature patterns in Central Asia that deviate markedly from global norms. Summer temperatures rise with unexpected velocity, while precipitation diminishes across landscapes already acquainted with scarcity. Agriculture, dependent upon irrigation's mercy, finds itself increasingly vulnerable to these shifting patterns. Under moderate scenarios, portions of Central Asia may encounter temperature increases of 4-5°C by the end of the century, nearly twice the global average under identical conditions. These elevated rates accelerate glacier dissolution, intensify water evaporation, and exacerbate heat stress on communities, livestock, and crops.
With numerous global stakeholders offering partnership and support, the hydro-diplomatic evolution of Central Asia exists within a broader international context. For example, China has a strong economic presence through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes significant investments in water infrastructure. Russia continues its historical role through energy cooperation that complements seasonal water management needs. The Netherlands and South Korea are the second and third-largest investors in Kazakhstan, respectively, after Russia. International organisations and Western nations can contribute technical expertise and capacity-building resources, while regional forums are increasingly providing platforms for Central Asian-led solutions. As climate transformation advances, the capacity of these lands to support both human and ecological communities diminishes, and these practices further reveal how tensions over shared water resources between nations may create governance intricacies that resist simplistic climate adaptation strategies.
Confronted with this new climate, researchers have observed increasing migrations catalysed by climate-related phenomena: "mudslides and landslides, floods, hazardous waste and desertification." While migration represents one response to environmental transformation, equally necessary is the freeze response of enforced stillness. These immobilised communities often comprise society's most vulnerable members—elders, children, persons with disabilities, and those in extreme poverty—who lack resources, connections, or capacities to relocate as their environments grow increasingly inhospitable.
Methodological challenges, data limitations, and conceptual ambiguities have restricted research on climate mobility in Central Asia. Be that as it may, those possessing the fewest resources often face the greatest exposure to climatic consequences, which exacerbates existing social vulnerabilities. Addressing both migration governance and support for those unable to leave their homelands, this knowledge deficit constrains our understanding of current migration patterns. It limits our ability to envision future population movements under varied climate scenarios. Despite the evident significance of climate-influenced mobility in Central Asia, substantial research vacancies persist. To be cold as can be is neither the act of freezing the problem out nor the active dispelling of climate change’s existence. For the real chill of it all, reiterating with a sense of hope and urgency goes beyond the coolness of the luxuries we enjoy. One of the most frigid things is knowing that something must be done about climate change and yet choosing to do nothing, frozen, with ice in our veins.
Nyx Joy is currently pursuing her degree in International Relations in Tokyo. She is also the Podcast officer and host for ASEAN-Australia Strategic Youth Partnership's AASYP On Air and a chosen participant of the Women in Strategic Policy program by Girls Run the World and the Coral Bell Institute.
