Dubai and the Revolution that Never Came

Young Diplomats Society
Sep 17
5 min read

By Jeff Zhou

Content Warning:

The following article includes sensitive discussion of suicide and death, which some readers may find distressing.

Reader discretion is advised.

On December 17, 2010, a street vendor named Tarek El-Tayeb Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. His suicide was triggered by the confiscation of his supplies and harassment from a municipal official and their aides. This shocking event helped spark the Tunisian Revolution, which in turn inspired protests in several other Arab countries - a movement that became known as the Arab Spring.

Although the initial wave of uprisings faded by mid to late 2012, their impact continues to reverberate across parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). For example, a new wave of protests erupted in 2018, resulting in the ousting of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. Many of the power vacuums created by the initial uprisings remain unfilled, fueling chaos and violence as groups compete for control.

Nearly the entire region felt, and still feels, the effects of the Arab Spring, with one notable exception: Dubai. Dubai not only escaped unscathed from any major upheaval, but it has thrived in the aftermath. Even more striking is that the broader United Arab Emirates (UAE), of which Dubai is the largest city, experienced only limited calls for reform, such as a petition by around 150 Emiratis for greater political openness. Analysing Dubai's markedly different trajectory is key to understanding the factors that shape pro-democracy movements and their broader implications.

Bread and Circuses: The Politics of Distraction

First, it’s critical to examine the circumstances of the Arab Spring and the context in which it unfolded. In 2016, the Brookings Institution conducted a five-year study on the size of the middle class in five MENA countries during the mid-2000s: Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria. Defining the “middle class” as those “reasonably secure from falling into poverty,” Brookings found that by the late 2000s, only two of the five countries studied (Jordan and Tunisia) had a sizable middle class. The other three presented a bleak picture. In Egypt and Yemen, the already small middle class kept shrinking, eventually accounting for no more than a tenth of the population. Syria’s middle class experienced the most growth, but it still did not constitute a majority. This helps explain why Jordan and Tunisia avoided the bloodshed that engulfed Egypt, Yemen, and Syria.

The West’s chorus of pro-democracy sentiment largely overlooked the deeper cause of the Arab regimes’ loss of legitimacy: the breakdown of the “authoritarian bargain”, whereby the state provided services, including entertainment, and necessities, in exchange for political compliance. Young men, in particular, were outraged by the lack of government support, as rising education levels across the region failed to translate into better employment prospects due to a lack of public sector jobs and low-paying private sector work. In short, the Arab Spring was as much an economic rebellion as a political one.

This is evident in several uprisings, where protestors chanted “bread, freedom, and social justice”, a slogan that reflected the severity of food shortages in many areas. One of the reasons the economic situation was so dire at the onset of the Arab Spring was the global 2008 financial crisis, which led to strict austerity measures. While the elites lived in luxury, ordinary people went hungry.

The UAE Exception

The economic dynamics of the Arab Spring make the UAE a unique case - an authoritarian paradise with Dubai as its crown jewel. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan served as President during the Arab Spring. Under his leadership, the UAE held no free and fair elections, offered limited civil rights, and tightly restricted free speech. His government was also heavily criticised by human rights organisations for engaging in torture and arbitrary detention.

However, unlike his fellow counterparts who endured widespread unrest, Sheikh Khalifa enjoyed high popularity among Emirati citizens. During the 2008 financial crisis, he was praised for funnelling billions of dollars in emergency bailout funds into Dubai. Sheikh Khalifa also attracted cultural and academic centres to his domain, helping establish the Louvre Abu Dhabi and New York University Abu Dhabi.

Dubai, in particular, reaped substantial rewards from Sheikh Khalifa’s leadership. The city-state developed a reputation as a hub for international business and tourism by constructing iconic attractions, such as the Burj Khalifa. This proved crucial, as its status as a global business centre attracted significant capital inflows for the UAE: about $8.2 billion from Arab Spring countries seeking safety from regional instability. Furthermore, the rising influx of cash allowed Dubai to invest over $50 billion between 2010 and 2023 in non-oil sectors, accelerating economic diversification. The result of all this government investment can be captured in one 2011 survey, conducted right before the Arab Spring, which revealed that 97% of Emirati nationals reported satisfaction with their overall quality of life, exceeding that of most European respondents.

A City Built to Last, at a Cost

Dubai’s economy, along with the broader UAE’s, continues to soar, with GDP hitting $92.4 billion in the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a 3.1% year-on-year growth. Initiatives such as the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aspire to double the economy’s size by 2033 and place Dubai among the world’s top three cities. Today, almost 90% of Dubai’s population consists of expatriates, and its image as a playground for the rich and famous has only strengthened over the years.

Despite all its economic success, Dubai remains under the autocratic fist of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Some human rights organisations claim he’s even more cunning and ruthless than his brother, former ruler Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum. One controversy that grabbed international headlines was the failed 2018 escape of Princess Latifa, daughter of Sheikh Mohammed. Before attempting to flee Dubai, she posted a video describing her life as a "suffocating existence behind royal palace walls". After her escape boat was stopped in international waters by a joint Indian-UAE operation, Princess Latifa was transported back to Dubai and is still in detention.

Princess Latifa’s captivity, along with other high-profile incidents - including the use of Pegasus spyware to hack the phones of Princess Haya, her legal team, and close associates in the UK during their custody battle - has exposed Sheikh Mohammed’s abuse of state power. Nevertheless, he still appears to attain high public approval. Some geopolitical experts remain confident that Dubai, and possibly even the UAE, will eventually collapse under the weight of its authoritarianism, becoming the Arab Spring’s final victim. However, history suggests that as long as rulers continue to implement strategies that benefit the average citizen, many will willingly sacrifice their rights and ignore injustices.

Jeff Zhou possesses a strong track record in the venture capital and technology sectors. As Principal at Untapped Ventures, he has facilitated $20M+ in venture funding and oversees a diverse portfolio of 32 AI startups, driving strategic investment and go-to-market execution. His expertise extends to public-private partnerships, having co-designed the Untapped Future of Work Accelerator with the City of Burbank, a program that supports AI-driven workforce innovation.

Outside of work, Jeff contributes to AI governance by advocating for responsible AI deployment. Fluent in Mandarin and with global experience across North America, Asia, and Europe, he brings a multinational perspective to AI’s role in shaping the future of industries and infrastructure.